The impact of tariffs on US aluminium supply

Data from Industrious Labs shows that the 50% tariffs on primary aluminium may have reduced shipments into the United States.

This decline is most evident in imports from Canada, which have dropped by 25% year-over-year without being offset by replacement volumes from other countries.

Consequently, total available primary aluminium – domestic production plus imports – has fallen to its lowest level since the tariffs were introduced in 2018, even dipping below the lows seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

While supply has contracted, US primary aluminium production has remained around 0.7-1.0 million tonnes since 2017.

Meanwhile, demand could rise by as much as 40% over the next decade, driven by transportation, transmission, and packaging.

Although certain domestic projects are underway, such as the planned facility in Oklahoma by Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Century Aluminum, these additions are not expected to materialise until the late 2020s.

The resilience of the US supply chain is further complicated by a reliance on the UAE and Bahrain for 20% of imported primary aluminium.

Geopolitical volatility in the Middle East poses a risk to these supply routes, particularly involving transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, domestic constraints – limited smelting capacity, high electricity costs, and long timelines to build new or restart smelters – impact how quickly the US can compensate for sudden import shortfalls.

Ultimately, meeting rising aluminium demand will depend on whether the US can scale domestic production in a way that is both cost-competitive and lower carbon.

Industrious Labs suggests this expansion is tied to the availability of industrial-scale clean electricity.

Until then, the US aluminium market is expected to remain tight and increasingly exposed to disruption.

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